Who’s going to be first past the post?

Joe Twyman, YouGov’s head of political and social research, has already made his predictions.

The former Colchester schoolboy said the signs are already showing who will be taking home the prizes in Colchester, Clacton and Harwich& North Essex He said: “The three constituencies are interesting for different reasons.

“All the current MPs have very interesting stories to tell.”

CAROLINE TILLEY reports.

ACCORDING to Mr Twyman, Colchester is the most contentious of the three, and the most interesting to watch.

He said: “If you go back to 1997, Colchester really was a three-way marginal seat between Rod Green for Labour, Stephan Shakespeare for the Conservatives and Bob Russell for the Lib Dems.

“It was incredibly close. Sir Bob just got in and then did what all Lib Dems do and established a local base.

“In the 2001 general election, he upped his majority to 2,000, in 2006 he increased it again to 5,000 and last time it rose to 7,000.

“The Lib Dems have held on to it because they work hard, have good local connections and they are not so concerned with the mockery of Government.

“Sir Bob is the personification of that. He hasn’t taken a ministerial post or become a whipping boy of the Conservatives.

“Now, is it certain he will win again? No. But I think it is most likely he will retain his seat.”

Mr Twyman said Colchester is too diverse to give the Green Party and Ukip a sniff.

He said the Tories’ candidate has a problem too.

He said: “The problem for Will Quince is Will Quince.

“He feeds into what you expect from the Conservatives and can play on that Tory boy image.

“It will be a difficulty for him because he is running for office at such a young age and playing into that image.”

Mr Twyman said Sir Bob will lose votes because of the national picture with the Lib Dems, especially the student vote.

But he said students are not organised enough to mean he will lose.

He said: “Sir Bob will suffer, but I’m not convinced it will be enough. People say Mr Quince is doing well, but what evidence are they basing that on? The people they are talking to?

“There hasn’t been significant political polling.”

CLACTON

DOUGLAS Carswell stunned the political elite last year when the Clacton MP swapped the Conservaties for Ukip.

He walked away with his old constituency crown after triggering a by election, taking 60 per cent of the vote.

While Mr Twyman said Mr Carswell will not achieve the same amount of voters this time around, no one is likely to challenge him on May 7.

He said: “Demographically, Clacton completely favours Ukip.

“The party will pull in votes across the country, but realistically will only get three to five seats because of the way our voting system works. Mr Carswell will almost certainly be one of them because he is incredibly popular.

“If you look at Clacton town, there has been an influx of families from the East End of London over the generations.

“They are white, working class voters who are the prime target for Ukip. You put that together with Jaywick, an extremely deprived area, and you get people who feel they have been left behind with the changes which have taken place nationally.

“They look at the established political parties and say ‘what are they doing for me?’.

“Of course, what is interesting is looking at the Ukip major players and who they actually are.

“Nigel Farage is a banker with a German wife, while Mr Carswell was a Conservative MP who did the standard thing of standing first in a difficult seat and then standing in a safe seat, Clacton, the second time around.

“It’s not that the voters believe in Ukip policies. It’s that it is sending a message to the established parties about what they are doing for people.

“Levels of immigration in Clacton are lower than in many other parts of the country. But for voters, it’s not about that. It’s about them and how the world is changing and the fact they don’t like it.”

HARWICH

IF Douglas Carswell is the epitomy of the times, with anti-establishment voters calling out for change, Bernard Jenkin is the opposite.

Mr Jenkin has held a seat in rural north Essex, now called Harwich and North Essex, since 1992.

Since then, despite four general elections and boundary changes to the constituency, the Tory MP has not come close to losing his seat.

Mr Twyman said: “What is interesting about Bernard Jenkin is his winning is actually nothing to do with the voting.

“He is not in much danger. In many respects, the constituency is in exactly the same position as many others around the country.

“You don’t get anymore established than Mr Jenkin.

“The country has seen a huge rise in anti-establishment parties.

Yet what impact will they have on Mr Jenkin?

“It is the same up and down the country that because of the voting system, and the demographics of the area, he has very little chance of losing his seat.

“He will hold on, despite the growing Ukip support. They will challenge for third or second.

But they won’t challenge for the seat.

“That is what we are going to see across the country.”

See gazette-news.co.uk/news/ 2015_election for a full list of candidates in each constituency.

Mr Twyman is holding a charity talk on the general election and what it means for our constituencies and the country at the Headgate Theatre, Colchester, on April 19. To book your place, go to headgatetheatre.co.uk Tickets cost £7 and all proceeds will go to charity.