Map predicts whether Colchester will be a Covid-19 hotspot

With lockdown measures set to be eased on March 8 and then again on March 29, researchers at the Imperial College London’s have predicted the probability of areas becoming Covid-19 hotspots.

The data has been produced by the Medical Research Council Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, in conjunction with its mathematics department.

It predicts the probability of local authorities recording at least 100 cases per 100,000 people over the coming weeks and becoming a 'hotspot' on its map.

The website predicts a 26 per cent chance Colchester will become a hotspot by the week ending Saturday, March 20.

Picture: Imperial College London

This is the highest percentage across Essex and below only Luton in the east of England.

Tendring has a five per cent probability of becoming a hotspot by the end of this week.

If you look at a week later, the chance of Colchester becoming a hotspot increases slightly to 27 per cent.

Picture: Imperial College London

The predictions are based on reported cases and weekly reported deaths, combined with mathematical modelling, which results in the probability of an area becoming a hotspot in the following weeks.

The modelling suggests cases are set to stay at safe levels, however the country is set for some lockdown restrictions to be eased which may change this.

From Monday all schools will open with outdoor after-school sports and activities allowed.

Recreation in an outdoor public spaces - such as a park - will be allowed between two people, meaning they would be allowed to sit down for a coffee, drink or picnic.

From March 29 outdoor gatherings of either six people or two households will be allowed.

It is understood this will include gatherings in private gardens.

Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis or basketball courts will reopen and organised adult and children's sport, such as grassroots football, will also return.

Read more:

• Covid: Visitor restrictions at Colchester Hospital to be relaxed
• Covid: How many people have been vaccinated in Colchester?
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Modelling gives a higher chance of Colchester becoming a hotspot if the benchmark is reduced to record case rates above 50 per 100,000 residents by March 20.

The chance increases to 64 per cent using this measure.

Picture: Imperial College London

Tendring has a 31 per cent chance of being a hotspot under this measure.

Imperial College states its projections for hotspots assume no change in interventions and human behaviour has been made since a week before the last observed data.

Imperial College also lists a number of limitations to its predictions.

It explains: "Predictions on this page assume no change in current interventions (lockdowns, school closures, and others) in the local area beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

"An increase in cases in an area can be due to an increase in testing. The model currently does not account for this.

"Each area (local authority) is treated independently apart from the overall Rt estimate for its region. Thus the epidemic in a region is neither affected by nor affects any other region. It also does not include importations from other countries.

"The population within an area is considered to be homogeneous - i.e. all individuals are considered equally likely to be affected by the disease progression."

You can view the tool using this link imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local.