Log on to the Met Office website for north Essex and there they all are - bright yellow suns with not a cloud or ominous rain spot in sight.

Until Thursday, that is. That is when the cloud and the rain spots are back, and by Friday we really know summer is on its way. The cloud thickens, the sun disappears and the temperature plummets nearly 10C from yesterday's 24C (75.2F) to 15C (59F).

"From the end of this week into next, we will have a showery situation," said Met Office spokesman Barry Gromett, "but nothing like last May."

May 2007 in north Essex was a blinder. Nearly 103mm of rain fell in Colchester and Tendring - the average is 45mm - roads and homes were flooded, the sun disappeared for practically the entire month and, just to add insult to injury, the wind blew hard, too.

It was more like February than May, and, when it came to wet weather, June was even worse.

In Colchester, blazing June had 107mm of rain - more than 200 per cent above the 35mm monthly average. On the plus side, at an average 20C (68F), June 2007 was a lot warmer than May which never really got above 14C (57F).

Hot, June was not. Despite a decent average, June 2007 turned out not only to be one of the wettest Junes on record, but one of the coldest. Some days it only managed 15C (59F). The previous year, 26C (78.8F) had been looked on as the norm.

After north Essex thought it had had its summer in April, August sort of redeemed the 2007 summer weather.

Temperatures climbed to 27C (80.6F) over the August Bank Holiday, the rain drizzled in at 32mm - less than half the monthly average - and north Essex had 185 hours of sunshine.

But it had been a terrible summer - and not just in north Essex. From May to July there was torrential rain somewhere.

North Essex, the UK's driest region, was the first to be hit. Then came Yorkshire (particularly the Sheffield and York areas), the Midlands in late June, and Gloucestershire, Worcestershire and the Thames Valley in July. It was the wettest summer since the national and regional rainfall series began in 1914.

And this year? The Met Office is confident summer 2008 will not be a wash-out. Heatwave? Apparently, not.

"Temperatures these past couple of weeks have been well-above the May average for north Essex of 16C (61F)," said Mr Gromett.

"This is down to the warm air moving westwards to the UK after sitting above the continental land mass of northern Europe. When warm air sits above such a big land mass, it gets hotter."

Once that warm air moves on, temperatures, he said, will be back to "normal".

"There is a new weather front moving up from the south (France) which will introduce much more moisture into the atmosphere, and that means next week there will be showers," said Mr Gromett.

He pointed out there is "no evidence" to suggest these showers will be prolonged and "no evidence" to suggest summer 2008 will mirror summer 2007.

No-one anticipates a wash-out, but no-one is predicting blue skies and hot sun for three months either.

June, July and August will probably boast pre-2003 average temperatures of 22C (71.6F). And there's the rub. With the exception of the scorching summers of 1976 and 1977, the average temperature for those three months is 22C - and has been since records began.

The hot summers of 2003, 2004 and the killer - literally - 2006, have made anything less than 30C (86F) unacceptable. We have got used to al fresco, big sunglasses and convertibles. We don't want to go back to jumpers in July and fingers-crossed barbecues.

We hope last summer was a blip and this summer will see the weather back on track. Unfortunately, 2003, 2004 and 2006 were the blips.

"That is the problem," said Mr Gromett. "People see those years as the norm. It is the weather most of them want, but, while our climate is changing, there is no guarantee those hot summer temperatures of 2003, 2004 and 2006 will become average."

That works for rainfall, too. Last year's downpours were down to an anomaly with the jet stream, a 10,000ft-high high-speed air stream which affects the formation of weather fronts.

During the summer months, the jet stream is usually above Scotland and Northern Ireland. In 2007, possibly due to global warming, the jet stream moved further south over England. It brought with it a deluge.

This year expect everything to be as it should be - some rain spots with some bright sunshine and a top temperature of 22C (71.6F).

WILL IT BE HOT, HOT, HOT?

Temperatures last summer - June, July, August - were near the 1971-2000 average. But against the background of a warming climate, summer 2007 was relatively cool, the coolest since 1998.

The Met Office anticipates:

  • Summer 2008 temperature There is a chance of more frequent cloudy and cool spells compared to recent summers prior to 2007. But mean temperatures are more likely to be above the 1971-2000 average of 21C/69.8F for north Essex.
  • Summer 2008 rainfall Rainfall in north Essex for June, July and August is more likely to be "either near or above average" - 50mm.

A Met Office spokesman said: "In all likelihood the weather will not be as wet as last year".