If the pollsters are as certain as they claim to be about the outcome of next month’s General Election, then Pam Cox would make history in more ways than one.
The sociology professor is keen to point out Colchester is one of 140 UK constituencies which has never had a female MP – the first statistical anomaly she wishes to consign to the history books.
The second is Colchester has not had a Labour MP since the end of the Second World War, and even then, Charles Delacourt-Smith only lasted one term before Cuthbert Alport snatched the seat back five years later in 1950.
In short, Colchester has not historically voted for Labour or female candidates – but both YouGov and Electoral Calculus suggest it is going to change this year.
The national picture is also expected to change, with Labour expected to win a large majority despite a crushing defeat at the polls four-and-a-half years ago.
Professor Cox has been a member of the Labour Party since 1994, and the 2019 election defeat was a low point.
In an interview with the Gazette in March, she argued since then both Labour and the Conservatives have changed markedly as political parties.
Whilst Labour banished Jeremy Corbyn, the Conservatives deposed Boris Johnson before the membership elected Liz Truss.
After a disastrous 49-day tenure, she was replaced by Rishi Sunak who has been unable to arrest the Tories’ sharp decline in the polls.
With that in mind, Professor Cox is well aware she will probably never have a better chance of becoming an MP.
She said: “I’m taking nothing for granted but I think I have got a chance of taking the seat – certainly local polling suggests that that is the case.
“I think there has been a Labour vote, or latent Labour vote, which led to Bob Russell who I think was a very good local MP.
“I think there was a tactical vote in Colchester for many years.
“The Labour group of councillors has been prominent within the council for a number of years, so there is a base for Labour in Colchester and there is now a support for Labour in Colchester that I am finding on the doorstep.”
Sources in Colchester Labour suggest this election does feel different and there is a sense the country is on the verge of change in a big way.
Not that the local elections in Colchester last month would have suggested that, though – the Conservatives did not lose a single councillor, and if there was any loser at Charter Hall on election night, it was the Liberal Democrats.
But the optimism Labour will get over the line in three weeks’ time remains.
“The evidence speaks for itself – the Labour party has changed,” Professor Cox said.
“They have got a plan for future growth and security – Labour is ready to govern.”
Currently working at the University of Essex, Professor Cox knows becoming MP will mean setting her academic career to one side and putting her political exploits front and centre.
Her career and social policy research, Professor Cox argues, has put her in good stead to be an MP.
“I have got a lot of relevant experience – I have 25 years of experience as an academic.
“I have held leadership roles in the university and beyond.
“The university is very policy focused – a lot of my recent research has had that policy focus.
“I have worked with local residents and charities and government departments, so I have good experience of policy design and policy evolution stretching back over a decade.”
Much of her work appears rooted in a determination to identify problems and fix them – a characteristic she says was fostered during her upbringing in Southend where her mother was a nurse and her father was a Baptist minister.
“As a councillor in the last three years, I have been involved with trying to find solutions to some of Colchester’s challenges,” she said.
“Being a councillor is a great experience – it’s like lifting the bonnet of a car and looking what’s underneath and seeing how everything works.
“When I was portfolio holder for culture and heritage, my brief was on city centre regeneration and making the most of what we have in terms of arts, heritage, culture and things like that – the city centre masterplan is a way of bringing some big picture thinking to the city centre.
“For me, this is where a Labour government comes in – we are looking at more long-term infrastructure plans for roads and flooding and transport.
“That will in the long term help us, and in the short term I would be the kind of MP that would sit around the table with and try and fix those challenges.”
Over the next few years, the biggest challenge will arguably be the future of Middlewick ranges, which has been included in the Local Plan and could therefore be the site of hundreds of homes.
Though there may not be a straightforward solution to the Wick, Professor Cox’s proposal is to turn the area into a nature reserve to protect it from development.
“I want to see the Wick designated as a local green space or nature reserve and I want to protect that from development.
“The Labour group support the Local Plan but the position was that the MoD should stop the sale and stop the build – removing it from the Local Plan does not protect it from development.”
Equally relevant to Colchester over the coming weeks is it will spell the end of Will Quince’s nine-year stint as MP.
It will fall to James Cracknell to retain the Conservative vote – quite a challenge given Mr Quince has increased the Conservative vote four elections in a row.
Professor Cox said it was revealing Mr Quince decided to step down when he did.
“It is very telling he opted to walk away from a promising career – it would seem to me he didn’t see his future in the Conservative party because of how it has changed over the past five years.
“It is because the Conservative Party has changed that we are seeing a new look at Labour.”
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